The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
As the fight for deposits intensifies, the cost of money will rise and the margin will be under further pressure, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
'Currently, our individual first premium would be in the Rs 3,000-Rs 3,200 crore range. We want to take that to about Rs 6,000 crore in three years.'
Mumbai's young batting star Musheer Khan has been ruled out of the upcoming Irani Cup match after suffering a fracture in the neck, in a road accident on the Yamuna Expressway, on Friday.
The arrival of the New Year will see an exciting white-ball showdown with England visiting India for five T20Is and three ODIs.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
Privately, many bankers admit their immediate goal is not growth but slowing the erosion of Casa deposits, reveals Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Wedding planner WedMeGood estimates that the average wedding budget has surged to Rs 36.5 lakh this year, with destination weddings averaging Rs 51 lakh.
Gautam Adani-owned Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) will replace IT major Wipro in the 30-share BSE Sensex from June 24, according to an official announcement on Friday. This marks the first inclusion of any Adani Group firm in Sensex. The group has 10 listed firms with a combined market valuation surpassing Rs 17 lakh crore.
'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
More than half a dozen private-sector banks are awaiting regulatory approval for the appointment of a second whole-time director on their boards.
The rupee remains overvalued against the currencies of India's trading partners, even as it hit record lows against the dollar in August and September. According to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) real effective exchange rate (REER) index, the rupee stood at 5.5 per cent above its fair value in August, down from 7.7 per cent in July. This slight easing followed fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen carry trades, which exerted pressure on the Indian currency.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
India's premier pace bowler and vice-captain Jasprit Bumrah was rested for the fourth Test match against England.
The Reserve Bank will launch the first pilot for retail digital rupee in Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru and Bhubaneswar on December 1, and later expand it to nine more cities in the initial phase. This follows a month after the RBI had started a pilot in the digital rupee - wholesale segment on November 1. The Reserve Bank announces the launch of the first pilot for retail digital rupee (e?-R) on December 1, 2022, the central bank said in a statement on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) latest order on unsecured loans is set to hit the banking sector's growth in the near-term, cautioned analysts, as they see banks slowing down on aggressive retail lending. Besides, cost of funds for non-banking finance companies (NBFC) is expected to inch up as banks will pass on higher capital charge to NBFCs. "We believe the fallout of the RBI action will be mainly on growth, given the rising dependence on unsecured retail loans and lending to NBFCs for growth.
Mining conglomerate Vedanta Limited has received approvals from the majority of its creditors for a proposed demerger of businesses, marking an important step in the company's plan to split into six independent listed companies. "I am happy to let all of you know that we have received the 52 per cent plus the additional percentage, which is required for us to reach 75 per cent. "We have crossed that threshold as well. Most of the lenders have approved it," a senior Vedanta executive said in a recent bondholder conference call.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
The currency in circulation (CIC) declined in the first half of this financial year and this is the first time this has happened in H1 in at least 10 years. The CIC on March 31, 2023, was Rs 33.78 trillion, which fell to Rs 33.01 trillion on September 22 -- a difference of about Rs 76,658 crore. In the first half of the last two financial years, the CIC went up by Rs 33,357 crore in FY23 and Rs 84,978 crore in FY22.
India's first digital rupee pilot project will commence on Tuesday with nine banks, including SBI, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, issuing the virtual currency for transactions in government securities. "...the first pilot in the digital rupee - Wholesale segment shall commence on November 1, 2022," the RBI said in a statement on 'Operationalisation of Central Bank Digital Currency-Wholesale (e?-W) Pilot'. It also announced that the first pilot in digital rupee - Retail segment is planned for launch within a month in select locations in closed user groups comprising customers and merchants.
'Our unsecured loan is not exactly unsecured. It is backed by cash flow of customers.'
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
The Paytm application (app) could potentially face a permanent loss of its integrated mobile wallet feature, currently owned by Paytm Payments Bank (Paytm PB). With the recent crackdown on Paytm PB, sources say getting a fresh wallet licence may get tough for the group. "The Paytm app (One97 Communications) has to apply afresh to the RBI for a licence to operate a prepaid payment instrument (PPI) like a mobile wallet within the Paytm app, as PPI is a regulated entity.
>It's not easy to predict the market. But there are at least two positive factors to back the PSU banks, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The cost of deposits is on the rise, but banks can't raise interest rate on close to 60% of their loan books, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
A potential risk to the rupee's appreciation trajectory lies in the event of a delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, particularly if core inflation in the US remains elevated.
The coming years could be exciting for Bandhan Bank, IDBI Bank, IDFC First Bank, Federal Bank, and CSB Bank.
Fundraising through qualified institutional placement (QIP) has revived this year, led by commercial banks, after a lacklustre 2022. According to data compiled by Prime Database, Indian companies have raised Rs 53,070 crore in 2023 so far, of which seven banks - Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and J&K Bank - account for Rs 21,290 crore, or about 40 per cent. If other financial institutions are included, the figure surges to Rs 26,690 crore.
Corporate India is busy restructuring - through mergers, demergers and splits. That seems to be the new normal as CXOs and boards brainstorm on how to create assets and value. The pitch rose significantly during the third quarter of this financial year (FY24), translating into $32.9-billion worth of such deals - the highest quarterly total since the HDFC Bank-HDFC merger announced in FY22 Q2.
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Most infra projects have hit a road block due to high cost of funds.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das had stumped the market in the previous two policies - in August and in October - first with action and then with words. In August, it was the introduction of an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) to take out excess liquidity, which took the markets by surprise. In October, there was no action. Rather, what is known as "open mouth operation", Das' comment that the central bank might conduct open market operations (OMOs) by selling bonds tempered the euphoria in the bond markets after JP Morgan's inclusion of India in its Emerging Market Bond Index.
It won't be easy for the banking sector to better its performance every quarter, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, research, Religare Broking, answers your stockmarket queries.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
Liquidity in the banking system has slipped into a deficit for the first time in three weeks, prompting banks to borrow the largest quantum of funds from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in around a month and a half. The key catalyst for the sudden tightening in liquidity was due to outflows on account of advance tax payments, which occur towards the end of a quarter. Analysts also cited other factors such as a currency leakage and possible interventions by the RBI in the foreign exchange market, which contributed to the tighter liquidity conditions.
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